Iranian intervention in the war in Lebanon has highlighted the dangers facing Beirut, ahead of negotiations that will test its sovereignty and determine the future of the country. But as long as Israel remains focused on continued fighting, the most that can be hoped for is tactical achievements – not strategic gains

Tehran's regime has emerged largely unchanged, and the mere fact that it is negotiating with Washington has granted it U.S. – and thus global – legitimacy. Iran views this legitimacy as its most important asset in the talks, and therefore seems unlikely to budge on uranium enrichment or its missile program

Beirut was ready for a political solution, but Israel preferred another war on Hezbollah, as Iran now moves to 'save' Lebanon from Israel and Trump greases the already slippery slope of Israel-U.S. ties

Tehran aims now not only to remove Trump's threat that the Iranian 'civilization will die' and to settle passage in the strait, but also to draw out a new map of regional control in a security agreement under which it preserves the status of a regional power

The U.S. president is escalating his rhetoric as his predictions continue to fall short. His threat to strike Iran's energy infrastructure, met with harsh counterthreats from Tehran, could have dire consequences for tens of millions across the Gulf