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The South Caucasus is becoming a live test of how far Washington can push into Russia and Iran’s shared perimeter before the backlash begins.
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The same technology marketed as a lifeline during conflict may be exposing users to surveillance, profiling, and targeting.
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Tel Aviv’s push to widen its security belt in south Lebanon is colliding with Hezbollah’s attrition doctrine, exposing the limits of Israeli firepower under Washington’s political ceiling.
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Empires still plant flags on old stones to prove they are winning – but modern wars are decided by what is circling overhead, not what is fluttering from a wall.
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As the Strait of Hormuz moves back to the center of Gulf politics, Muscat’s careful diplomacy with Tehran is becoming a test of whether regional security will be managed by Gulf states or dictated from outside.
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Dubai sold itself as a refuge from the region’s wars, but Abu Dhabi’s alignment with Washington and Tel Aviv has brought those wars to its doorstep.
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A US-backed disarmament track risks turning the Lebanese Armed Forces into a weapon against Hezbollah – and Lebanon against itself.
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Islamabad’s opening to Tehran reveals the limits of US pressure when crisis diplomacy, Gwadar, and Eurasian trade routes begin to overlap.
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When a government can disqualify rivals, remove party leaders, and still call the ritual an election, the ballot box has already been captured.
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Built for rapid victories, Tel Aviv now wagers its future on endless mobilization, wider buffer zones, and the impossible promise of absolute safety.
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Drones, anti-tank fire, explosive devices, ambushes, demolitions, and casualty figures all point to the same conclusion – Israel’s northern front was never the solved problem its commanders claimed.
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Israeli commanders entered the 2026 confrontation convinced Hezbollah had been reduced to a manageable threat, but the battle in south Lebanon forced them to confront the limits of their own victory narrative.
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Israel’s firepower could destroy terrain, empty villages, and redraw contact lines – but Hezbollah’s rebuilt doctrine turned every meter of the ‘security zone’ into a trap.
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Washington’s sanctions weapon is meeting a market too large to isolate – and a legal order Beijing now appears willing to enforce
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The strikes have stopped, but in Tehran, many now ask whether Washington has simply moved the war into markets, sea lanes, and daily life.
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Iran’s dismantling of the US base shield exposes the central weakness of Washington’s regional order: its occupation infrastructure can no longer protect itself.
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Between the bruising lessons of 2024 and the renewed confrontation of 2026, Hezbollah and Israel both raced to adapt — one under fire, the other through rehearsals for a wider multi-front war.
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The traditional and even contemporary definitions of warfare struggle to explain what has happened and is still happening in southern Lebanon
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