A hardline, law-and-order candidate who promises to dismantle drug cartels and reset Colombia’s security doctrine is gaining traction with voters as Colombians vote in Sunday's presidential election.

As the world’s largest cocaine producer and a long-standing U.S. security partner, Colombia’s internal policies directly affect narcotics flows, migration dynamics and regional stability.

Analysts believe a shift in Bogotá’s leadership could reshape cooperation with Washington on drug interdiction, intelligence sharing and counter-cartel operations — issues that remain central to U.S. domestic and foreign policy.

Abelardo De La Espriella, a businessman and successful defense attorney, has emerged as a leading candidate on the right with a platform focused on aggressive counternarcotics enforcement, institutional reform and a decisive break from current leftist President Gustavo Petro’s negotiation-based approach with armed rebel groups. 

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The 47-year-old, nicknamed ‘The Tiger,' recently told the Associated Press, "The only peace process I believe in is one imposed by the force of arms and the laws of the republic. Under my government, any bandit who resists will be eliminated as appropriate, and if he submits, we will imprison him in a mega prison so he can pay his debt to justice as they should."

His rise mirrors a regional pattern seen with leaders like Javier Milei, Nayib Bukele and José Antonio Kast figures who have built political momentum around security-first agendas and voter frustration with crime and economic instability.

According to an Associated Press report, polls say De La Espriella is likely to fight it out with leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, who is from the same party as President Gustavo Petro, and center-right candidate Paloma Valencia. There are 14 candidates on the ballot.

Valencia’s campaign is backed by most of the nation’s traditional parties and by economists who are concerned about the growing levels of debt under the Petro administration and want Colombia to return to more orthodox policies, the Associated Press reported.

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Valencia told Fox News Digital, "As president of Colombia, we will restore a strategic, close, and trustworthy relationship with the United States, based on mutual respect and the defense of our national interests. We will strengthen cooperation in security, intelligence, military training, and the fight against transnational crime; areas in which the alliance between our two countries has been essential to Colombia’s stability. We will also work to ensure that Colombia plays an active role in the Shield of the Americas and contributes to regional leadership in defense and security. "

She added, "The United States will continue to be a key partner for economic growth, investment, and job creation, as well as a vital ally for the millions of Colombians who live there. Colombia will also stand alongside the United States in defending freedom and democracy across the hemisphere, supporting efforts to restore liberty in Cuba and to help Venezuela return to a democratic path. Our relationship will be defined by trust, cooperation, and the pursuit of tangible benefits for Colombia and its citizens."

Critics say leftist candidate Iván Cepeda, represents a continuation and potential expansion of the leftist policies associated with Petro. Cepeda supports dialogue with armed groups, rural reform and a reform of Colombia’s traditional security framework, placing greater emphasis on social investment.

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Camilo Guzmán, executive director of Libertank, told Fox News Digital that Sunday’s election will likely result in a runoff between Cepeda and De La Espriella. "Abelardo earned that ticket by reading the room better than anyone else in the opposition. He offered catharsis, speaking directly to Colombian voters' indignation toward the traditional political class and the establishment. 

"Where center-right Senator Paloma Valencia offered competence and continuity with the Uribe tradition, he said, De La Espriella’s message "is built on a hard line on security," Guzman added. "Ending Petro's failed ‘total peace’ policy that emboldened guerrillas and cartels, going after narco-trafficking with full force, and rebuilding the counter-narcotics alliance with Washington that Petro spent four years dismantling."

Analysts say the outcome for the U.S. carries significant strategic weight. A De La Espriella administration could align more closely with Washington’s traditional counternarcotics priorities, potentially strengthening bilateral cooperation at a time when synthetic drug flows and organized crime networks are expanding across the hemisphere.

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Beyond bilateral relations, the election is being closely watched as a potential inflection point for Latin America. A De La Espriella or Valencia win would reinforce the momentum of security-focused leadership seen in parts of the region, while a Cepeda presidency would signal continuity for Petro’s policies.

José Manuel Restrepo, candidate for vice president on the ticket with De La Espriella talked exclusively to Fox News Digital. "The relationship between Colombia and the United States needs to be recovered and rebuilt, and this starts with a sound security policy to combat drug trafficking. It will be crucial to move beyond the current deteriorated relationship, in which we lost the historic bilateral, bicameral, bipartisan, and multisectoral relationship with our primary trading and investment partner."

He continued, "To strengthen it, we must seize the opportunity for Colombia to become the United States' best possible ally in the restoration of democracy in Venezuela. Leveraging this relationship with the United States, we can play a major role in investing in food, hygiene products and basic needs from Colombia to Venezuela. This would, among other things, give a new direction to the relationship with the United States, creating new opportunities that benefit Colombia…Under our administration, the relationship with the United States would be strengthened and revitalized.

Guzman noted that "De La Espriella's anti-establishment posture is not a libertarian agenda. His economic program leans on price controls, interest-rate subsidies, and import substitution, closer to old-school Latin American populism than to Bukele's pro-investment turn, and a world away from Milei's free-market project. Whether the economic program that comes with it creates new instability south of the border is the open question."

Analyst, entrepreneur and son of a former president Jerónimo Uribe said the stakes could not be clearer in Sunday's presidential race. "The elections in Colombia are not between the left and the right. They are between a communist model propped up by drug traffickers and a model that defends democracy and freedom," he told Fox News Digital.

Representatives for Cepeda did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The U.S. military conducted a strike on a vessel in the Caribbean tied to suspected drug trafficking operations, killing two people, U.S. Southern Command said.

In a post on X, U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM) said Joint Task Force Southern Spear carried out a "lethal kinetic strike" on May 4 at the direction of commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan.

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The command said intelligence assessed the vessel was transiting along known narco-trafficking routes in the Caribbean and allegedly engaged in drug trafficking operations. It added that the vessel was operated by what officials described as designated terrorist organizations.

Two male suspected "narco-terrorists" were killed in the strike, and no U.S. military personnel were harmed, according to the statement.

The strike is part of an ongoing campaign targeting suspected drug-trafficking vessels in Latin American waters that has continued since early September and has killed at least 188 people in total. Other strikes have taken place in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

The operations have ramped up again in recent weeks, even as the U.S. remains engaged in conflict with Iran, according to officials and prior military statements.

U.S. officials have described the effort as part of a broader campaign against what the administration calls "narcoterrorism" in the Western Hemisphere.

An international fugitive was arrested in Dubai this week following a years-long manhunt.

Daniel Kinahan, the alleged leader of one of Ireland’s biggest criminal gangs, the Kinahan cartel, was arrested on organized crime charges on Wednesday in a covert operation involving Irish and United Arab Emirates authorities.

The 48-year-old alleged crime boss is expected to face charges in Ireland related to a gangland feud between the Kinahan cartel and the Hutch gang that has left 18 people dead since 2015.

Dubai police didn’t name Kinahan, saying they had "arrested an Irish fugitive for his alleged role in an organised criminal ​group involved in international crimes in his ​home country."

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He was identified by Irish media outlets on Friday.

Ireland’s national police force, the Garda Síochána said an Irish man in his 40s was arrested under a warrant from the Irish courts.

"An Garda Síochána has been steadfast in our determination that we would pursue those allegedly involved in serious Organized Criminal activity, wherever they go," the police said in a statement, according to The Irish Star. "Today’s arrest is another extremely important demonstration of the need for international law enforcement co-operation in tackling transnational organized crime."

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Kinahan fled Ireland for Spain, then the UAE after he was the believed target in an assassination attempt that left an associate of the Kinahan cartel, David Byrne, dead at a boxing weigh-in at the Regency Hotel in Dublin.

The U.S. Treasury Department offered a reward of $5 million in 2022 for information leading to the arrest of the Kinahan cartel’s leaders or the organization’s "financial destruction."

The cartel is considered a juggernaut in the European drug trade, and, along with other European crime organizations, has created a "super cartel" that controls around a third of Europe’s cocaine trade.

Kinahan is also affiliated with the boxing world and was the founder of boxing management company MTK Global.

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.